【摘要】 【目的】通过北京大学在Coursera平台上运行的课程数据,对学生的辍学行为进行研究,以期预测学生的辍学点和辍学行为,改建教学慕课质量和方法。【方法】在课程数据基础上,提取19个特征,使用机器学习算法构建滑动窗口模型,动态预测学习者辍学率。【结果】模型预测准确率高,普遍在90%以上,效果稳定,支持向量机(SVM)和长短记忆网络(LSTM)方法建模效果更好。【局限】课程数据选课人数偏多,没有考虑其他课程数据稀疏问题,模型的可移植性仍需要进一步考虑。【结论】使用滑动窗口模型建模,能够帮助MOOC课程教师和设计者动态地追踪课程学习者辍学行为,准确率高,可以帮助教师通过快速的反馈来调整课程,降低辍学率。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] This paper aims to improve the MOOCs curriculum quality and pedagogy by analyzing the dropout behaviors with data from the MOOC of Peking University on Coursera. [Methods] We extracted 19 major features from the logs and then constructed a siding window model to predict the dropout rates. [Results] The precision of the proposed model was maintained above 90%. The SVM and LSTM methods further improved the performance of the proposed model. [Limitations] The new method needs to be examined with smaller sized courses. [Conclusions] Predicting dropout rates could help us improve the course quality effectively.更多还原