【摘要】 作为北方农牧交错区生态脆弱区的典型代表地区,通辽市长期的农业发展政策导致农、牧业格局失调,其不良结果主要表现为灌溉农业种植产业比例过高,导致大量水资源消耗在低效的农业种植部门,致使二、三产业的发展以及生态环境无水可用,限制了其它产业部门以及区域总体发展。本文利用系统动力学仿真方法模拟"高农发展格局"、"偏农发展格局"、"低农发展格局"、"偏牧发展格局"、"高牧发展格局"等农牧发展格局下的通辽市社会经济发展状态,并利用遗传投影寻踪的方法对模拟结果进行优选。得到如下结论:1)农牧发展格局是影响农牧交错地区可持续发展的重要因素;2)通辽市当前的农牧发展格局不能支撑未来的可持续发展;3)通辽市实现可持续发展必然要改变当前的农牧发展格局;4)本研究可为农牧交错地区实现可持续发展提供有益的借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a typical ecologically vulnerable area of the farming-pasturing interlaced areas in the northern China,Tongliao has been practicing long-term agricultural development policies,leading to the imbalance of agricultural and pastoral pattern.The main consequence of this situation is the too high proportion of irrigation farming industry,resulting in a lot of water resources consumed in the inefficient agricultural farming sector and insufficient water for the development of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry as well as the ecological environment,and thus the development of other industrial sectors and the overall region was restricted.In this paper,the simulation method of system dynamics is used to simulate the social and economic development status of Tongliao under different agricultural and pastoral land use patterns,including"intensive-agriculture development pattern","agriculture-focused development pattern","low-agriculture development pattern","pasture-focused development pattern"and "intensive-pasture development pattern".Besides,the genetic projection pursuit method was adopted to optimize the simulation results.The conclusions are as follows:1) the agricultural and pastoral development pattern is the key factor influencing the sustainable development of the farming-pasturing interlaced area;2) the current agricultural and pastoral development pattern of Tongliao cannot support the sustainable development of the city;3) optimizing the current agricultural and pastoral development pattern of Tongliao is an indispensable step for achieving the sustainable development of the city;4) this study can provide reference for achieving the sustainable development of the farming-pasturing interlaced area.更多还原