【摘要】 采用系统动力学的方法对低碳城市配送系统进行了研究。首先根据低碳城市配送系统中各个变量的关系,利用Vensim软件绘制因果关系图和存量流量图;接着结合广州市城市配送系统2001-2013年历年实际数据和系统自身的结构特点,界定模型中的各项参数,并对模型进行检验;然后通过对各个方案进行仿真模拟,预测广州市2020年低碳城市配送系统的相关指标,对比分析减排效果;最后根据仿真结果提出广州市低碳城市配送系统的优化方案,以降低城市配送带来的碳排放。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, we used the system dynamic methodology to study the low-carbon urban distribution system. First, according to the relationship between the various variables in the low-carbon urban distribution system, we drew the causal graph and stock-flow chart of the system using Vensim; then in connection with the statistical data of the urban distribution system of Guangzhou from 2001 to 2013 and the structural characteristics of the system itself, we defined the parameters of the model and subjected it to testing; next, through simulating several solutions, we forecast the relevant indexes of the low-carbon urban distribution system of Guangzhou at 2020 and analyzed comparatively the result in emissions reduction; and at the end, according to the simulation result, we proposed the measures for the optimization of the low-carbon urban distribution system of Guangzhou.更多还原