【摘要】 为了解决交通污染和能源短缺问题,政府对电动汽车提供了大量政策和资金支持,电动汽车的发展随之走入高潮。随着政策扶持的力度逐步减弱,电动汽车的发展势头开始放缓,与政府规划目标呈较大差距。通过Bass扩散模型和灰色Lotka-Volterra模型对历史数据进行研究,分析电动汽车的内禀增长能力。基于参数拟合后的模型对电动汽车的短期保有量进行预测,预测结果表明与政府既定目标有较大差距,政府需要在政策扶持和技术引导方面进行抉择。通过政策扶持可以使电动汽车维持在高速发展,但这种发展不具有持续性;通过技术引导使电动汽车具备市场竞争能力,才能促使电动汽车持续增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to solve the problem of traffic pollution and energy shortages,the government has provided a lot of policy and financial support for electric vehicles,and the development of electric vehicles has gone into a climax. As the intensity of policy support gradually weakened,the momentum of the development of electric vehicles began to slow down and there was a large gap between the ownership amount and government’s goal. The historical data are studied by Bass diffusion model and grey Lotka-Volterra model,and the intrinsic growth capacity of electric vehicles is analyzed. Based on the model after the parameter fitting,the short-term ownership of electric vehicles are predicted. The forecast results show that there is a big gap between the government goal and forecast data,and the government needs to make choices in terms of policy support and technical guidance.Through the policy support can make electric vehicles maintained at high speed,but this development is not sustainable. Only through the technical guidance can make electric vehicles have market competitiveness and continuous growth capacity.更多还原