【摘要】 室外空气干球温度、湿球温度与太阳辐射强度是研究空调设计负荷的三个重要室外气象参数,研究它们同时出现的极端情况对于空调负荷设计具有重要意义.基于二元阈值模型研究室外空气干球温度与太阳辐射强度两参数统计规律,采用MCMC方法估计模型的参数,对该阈值模型进行分析与预测.结果表明,天津市6~9月平均每20天会出现一次极端高温,此时空调处于"失效"状态.更多还原

【Abstract】 Dry-bulb temperature,wet-bulb temperature and intensity of solar radiation are important outdoor meteorological parameters for studying the design cooling load of air-conditioning,and discussing the simultaneous extreme situation is of great significance. The paper researches the statistical rule of dry-bulb temperature and intensity of solar radiation based on binary threshold model. Using MCMC to estimate the parameters and then proceeding analysis and forecast. The result shows that air conditioning is in "failure" state every 20 days in June to September in Tianjin.更多还原