【摘要】 本文首先介绍传统水量平衡法利弊,重点介绍了所建立的基于土壤初始含水量、时段降水量和时段"蒸渗流项"的平衡法土壤墒情诊断模型的原理和建模方法,并应用7个省23个县87个监测点2012—2014年的数据建模,应用2015年的数据进行了验证。结果表明:平衡法模型诊断和预测合格率只有50%左右;模型合格率不高的主要原因是基于降水量和土壤含水量之和的分段预测时数据量少,导致参数确定依据不足。所建立的平衡法模型作为墒情诊断模型使用还需进一步研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 The advantages and disadvantages of traditional water balance method were discussed.The principle and modeling method of balance diagnostic model of soil moisture based on initial soil water content,time-period precipitation and time-period "evapotranspiration,leakage and runoff"were emphatically introduced. The model was established by the data of 87 monitoring sites in 23 counties in 7 provinces during 2012-2014,and validated by the data of 2015. The results showed that the balance diagnostic model had only about 50% qualification rate in diagnosis and prediction. The main reason for the low qualification rate was the small amount of data based on the subsection prediction of the sum of precipitation and soil water content,which led to an inadequate pre-requirement for parameter determination. The balance diagnostic model established as a soil moisture diagnostic model needs to be further studied.更多还原