【摘要】 在考虑技术异质性的条件下,首先核算我国2002年、2007年以及2010年三年进出口隐含碳,然后运用对数平均迪氏指数法将对三年隐含碳排放变化量的影响因素进行分解。研究发现:(1)三年隐含碳净输出量分别为903百万吨、2 134百万吨、1 700百万吨,说明我国在对外贸易发展中,替发达国家和地区承担了过多的碳排放;(2)2002—2007年和2007—2010年两个阶段进口及出口隐含碳的规模效应和结构效应均为正,其中规模效应是2002—2007年进口及出口隐含碳增加的主要原因,结构效应是2007—2010年进口及出口隐含碳增加的主要原因;(3)两阶段我国进口及出口隐含碳的强度效应均为负,说明无论是我国还是境外的生产技术水平都在进步;(4)两阶段出口加权平均碳排放强度的年均降幅均高于进口加权平均碳排放强度的年均降幅,说明我国技术水平进步的速度要快于境外技术平均水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering technology heterogeneity,this paper firstly measures the import and export of embodied carbon emissions in China’s foreign trade in 2002,2007 and 2010 by using input-output model.Then,this paper disassembles the influence factors of China’s embodied carbon emissions variation decomposition by using the method LMDI.The results indicate as follows: first,this three years’ net embodied carbon emissions output are 903 million tons,2 134 million tons and 1 700 million tons,respectively,which suggests our country takes on excessive embodied carbon emissions for the developed countries during the development of foreign trade;second,in those two phases of 2002-2007 and 2007-2010,the scale effect and the structure effect of the import and export embodied carbon emissions in China are all positive,among which the scale effect is the main factor for the increasing in embodied carbon emissions in 2002-2007,the structure effect in 2007-2010 is the main factor for the increasing in embodied carbon emissions;third,intensity effect of this two phases of China’s import and export embodied carbon emissions are negative,which illustrates that production technology level has been in progress domestic and abroad;at the same time,during this two phases,the annual average decline of export’s weighted average of carbon intensity is more than the import’s,suggesting that the speed of technology progress is higher than the average level of the overseas technology.更多还原