【摘要】 为分析汇流模型参数对洪水模拟效果的影响,提高模型参数率定的精确性,以山西省洪水预报系统中的纳什瞬时单位线汇流模型为研究对象,运用LH-OAT法对汇流模型参数进行定向改变,分析确定汇流模型参数在不同等级洪水、不同流域、不同目标函数中的敏感性,再基于变异系数法确定汇流模型参数综合敏感性系数。研究表明,纳什瞬时单位线汇流模型参数敏感性会随着洪水等级、流域特征、目标函数的不同而改变,且汇流模型参数的敏感性仅与目标函数洪峰误差PE、洪峰流量Q_mi有关,与其他的目标函数无关;C₁与C₂这2个汇流模型参数综合敏感性系数分别为0.58、0.42,均为敏感性参数,且C₂的敏感性大于C₁。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to analyze the influence of confluence model parameters on flood simulation and improve the accuracy of model parameters,the Nash instantaneous unit line confluence model in Shanxi flood forecasting system is studied. Firstly,the parameters of confluence model are changed by LH-OAT method for analyzing the sensitivities of confluence model parameters in different levels of flood,different watersheds and different objective functions,and then the comprehensive sensitivity coefficient of confluence model parameters is determined based on the coefficient of variation. The results show that:（ a） the sensitivity of Nashian instantaneous unit line confluence model is changed with the changes of flood level,basin characteristics and objective function,and the sensitivity of parameters is only related to objective functions of flood flow(Q_mi) and flood peak error（ PE） and is independent to other objective functions; and（ b） the comprehensive sensitivity coefficients of parameter C₁ and C₂ are 0. 58 and 0. 42 respectively,they are all sensitive parameters and the sensitivity of C₂ is greater than that of C₁.更多还原