【摘要】 本文系统地研究了人口结构对主权债务风险的影响。人口结构"老龄化"与老年人口"高龄化"是本轮债务危机的重要诱因,"银色浪潮"会导致政府的偿债能力和偿还意愿降低,进而推高了主权信用风险。本文利用世代交叠分析框架构建了基于财政收支的缺口模型和基于违约概率的风险模型,从理论上推导出人口老龄化影响债务风险的内在机制,并运用面板数据双向固定效应模型研究发现,人口"老龄化"对主权债务风险存在显著的正向影响,"第二次人口红利"并未提高主权债务的可持续性,"高龄化"相对于"老龄化"将带来更大的债务风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper studies the influence of population structure on sovereign debt risk systematically. Aging populationis a crucial trigger for the debt crisis. "Silver wave"restricts the government’s paying capacity and paying willingness,and then increases sovereign credit risk. Based on the three-period OLG model,this paper discusses the internal mechanism of howdemographic aging affects debt default risk in theory. Using the two-way fixed-effects model,our empirical study finds that life extension and increasing elderly dependency ratio have significant positive effect on debt scale and sovereign credit default swap,and"the second demographic dividend"does not improve the sustainability of sovereign debt. Aging of the elderly would lead to greater debt risks by comparing with aging population.更多还原