【摘要】 基于黄河源区有关水文、气象台站的观测数据,对该区及黄河沿水文站以上、黄河沿水文站-吉迈水文站区间、吉迈水文站-玛曲水文站区间、玛曲水文站-唐乃亥水文站区间各区域1960—2014年期间径流变化的季节特征、趋势及其对气候变化响应的区域差异进行了分析。结果表明:近55 a来黄河源区径流及其各分区径流总体上呈减少的态势,但减少幅度各区有所不同;但在2000年代中期后径流量回升比较明显。在上述分析的基础上,基于周期外延叠加方法对黄河河源区径流未来30 a的可能变化进行了预测。预测显示,未来30 a内,黄河源区径流的变化为先增后减,但总体变化平稳,其均值与目前55 a实测系列均值没有显著差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on observation data at concerned stations,the seasonal variation characteristics and its long term evolutionary trend and regional differences of the runoff in each sub-region in the source region of the Yellow River,which are,the area above the Huangheyan hydrological station,the area between the Huangheyan hydrological station and Jimai hydrological station,the area between the Jimai hydrological station and the Maqu hydrological station and the area between Maqu hydrological station and the Tangnag hydrological station,and the whole region of the Yellow River during the period from1960 to 2014 were analyzed. The result showed that allinterannual variation of annual and seasonal runoff in each sub-region had been lessening year after year as a whole from 1960 s to mid-2000 s,although the magnitude of the reduction was different,the annual runoff began to rise again after the mid2000 s. On the basis of above analysis,Period Extension and Superposition Prediction Method were used for forecasting the future variation of annual runoff of the source region of the Yellow River. Predicted results displayed that variation of the runoff of the source region of the Yellow River in the next 30 years would present an upward tendency during from 2015 to 2024 and turned down. But the variation of runoff in the source region of the Yellow River in the next 30 year as a whole,and there would be no significant difference between the mean of measured runoff seriesin the current 55 years and the mean of predicted runoff series in the future 30 years.更多还原