【摘要】 鲁西北地区水资源贫乏,对黄河水的依赖性强;鲁东南地区水资源丰富,出境水量较大,具有较大的水资源开发利用潜力。随着黄河上中游地区用水量的增加,黄河进入山东境内的水量有减少趋势。为缓解鲁西北地区水资源供需矛盾突出的状况,以鲁西北的德州市为例,采用Copula函数法构建了二维、三维联合分布模型,分析了黄河干流来水以及鲁东南、鲁西北地区降水的丰枯遭遇概率及丰枯互补可行性。研究结果表明,黄河、鲁东南及鲁西北地区水资源具有一定丰枯互补性,可为山东省水资源合理配置提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The water resources of the northwest of Shandong Province are poor and depend heavily on the Yellow River.The water resources of the southeast of Shandong Province are rich and have large amount of water outflow,which has great utilization potential.With the increase of water consumption in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River,the water inflow Shandong Province has a decreasing trend.In order to alleviate the situation of the northwest of Shandong Province,this paper took Dezhou city as an example,and established two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint model by using Copula function.And then the wetness-dryness encountering probability and compensation characteristics were analyzed.The results show that the water resources of the above study areas has some wetness-dryness compensation characteristics,which can provide important theoretical basis for rational allocation of water sources in Shandong Province.更多还原