【摘要】 由于T639数值预报模式对具体区域预报有一定偏差,为了更好的利用该模式做出山东即墨本区域各自动站气温预报,制定订正方法,将订正方法运用到实际业务中,推广到相关单位,提高气温预报准确率,本文利用2013年1月至2015年12月山东省即墨市8个区域自动站的最高(低)气温实况和对应的T639数值预报24小时2m气温预报产品进行了日最高(低)气温的预报准确率、相对误差分析,并结合风向风速预报结论和地形分区,运用综合订正、季节订正、风向订正和风速订正4种误差订正方法,在对比检验的基础上,得出如下结论:在4种订正方法中,预报准确率最高为综合订正方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the T639 numerical forecasting model has a certain deviation in the specific regional forecast,in order to make better use of this model to make the regional station temperature forecast in Jimo,Shandong,we developed a revised method,which can be put into the actual operation to improve the forecast accuracy and relative error of daily maximum(minimum)air temperature,using the T639 2 meter temperature numerical forecast products during 24 hours and the observations in 8 regional automatic stations in Jimo from January 2013 to December 2015.Based on the contrast verification,it is concluded that the comprehensive correction is the most accurate method among the seasonal correction,comprehensive correction,wind direction correction,and wind velocity correction,which is combined with wind direction and wind velocity forecast and terrain zoning.更多还原