【摘要】 目的:尝试建立初步评价模型,预测环京津地区妇女乳腺恶性肿瘤风险。方法:通过对该地区乳腺恶性肿瘤危险因素的调查及筛选,得到乳腺恶性肿瘤风险评价模型,利用ROC曲线比较该模型和Gail模型在该地区针对危险度评价的效果。结果:环京津地区女性患乳腺恶性肿瘤的可能危险因素中影响最突出的是:年龄、体重指数>25 kg/m~2、一级亲属患乳腺恶性肿瘤、因不良生活事件或情绪调节能力差导致长期不良情绪、睡眠质量差、终生未妊娠、吸烟指数>400、致密型乳腺。本研究建立的模型预测环京津地区妇女乳腺恶性肿瘤准确性高于Gail模型。结论:针对危险因素,建立初步模型,有可能更好地预测患者罹患乳腺恶性肿瘤的风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To establish the evaluation model for risk factors of patients with breast cancer surrounding Beijing and Tianjin. Methods:The risk factors of patients with breast cancer were screened, then the new risk evaluation model was established based on these important factors. Diagnostic efficiencies of the new model and Gail model were compared by the calculation of area below ROC curve, and then the appropriate cut-offpoints of high,moderate and low risk were figured out. Results: The potential risk factors of breast cancer included age, body mass index(BMI) > 25, breast cancer-family history, long and bad emotions caused by undesirable life and the absence of emotion-adjusting ability, poor sleep, lifetime unpregnancy,smoking index >400,dense breast. Conclusion: The new model can provide a better prediction on patients’ risk of breast cancer.更多还原