基于模糊聚类分析的光伏发电规划与决策

【摘要】 当今世界面临着越来越严重的能源问题,为走低碳、绿色发展道路,国家提出了"能源互联网"的概念,以清洁能源发电的手段来实现"两个替代"的重要思想。可再生能源的投资面临着巨大的风险与挑战,无论对政府决策制定者而言,还是对可再生能源投资者而言,均迫切需要一个可将风险量化的投资辅助决策工具。运用不确定性理论集合中的模糊集理论,基于模糊聚类分析技术,构建基于模糊聚类分析的光伏发电规划与决策分析模型,并以我国近三年光伏并网装机容量为个例,进行实例验证和结果分析,以期为政府和光伏发电投资者提供决策支持建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The world is facing increasingly serious energy problems,as low-carbon and green development path,the country put forward the concept of "energy Internet",by the means of clean energy generation to achieve the important thought of "two alternative",but the investment in renewable energy is facing huge challenges and risks.No matter for government decision makers,or for renewable energy investors,an urgent need to quantify the risk of investment decision-making tools. This paper will use the fuzzy uncertainty theory set in set theory,based on the fuzzy clustering analysis technology to build photovoltaic power generation planning and decision analysis model,and with domestic PV installed capacity in the past three years as an example,to verify the results and analysis,and provide decision support for the government and the suggestions of photovoltaic the power of investors.更多还原