【摘要】 目的了解潍坊地区某高校新生的体质量指数发展规律,为合理制定大学生体质健康促进措施提供理论依据。方法选取潍坊地区某高校2008—2016年新生共30 609人,调取其入学体检数据,计算年平均体质量指数,运用灰色马尔科夫修正模型进行预测分析。结果构建灰色马尔科夫修正模型G(k)=Y(k)-1/2(A_i+B_i)y;经后验差比值(C=0.088)和小误差概率(P=0.987)检验,预测精度为一级;预测2017—2020年潍坊地区某高校新生年平均体质量指数为20.69、21.33、21.39、21.45,所处马尔科夫状态为3、1、2、3。结论2017-2020年某高校大学生体质量指数虽暂处正常范围,但逐年上升趋势明显。因此,应加强体质监测、合理干预、强化健康素养,引导大学生科学锻炼、合理控制体质量,谨防体质量指数上升带来的超重与肥胖风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To understand the development law of the body mass index to the Newly Enrolled Students of a university in weifang, and to provide theoretical basis and data support for the rational development of physical health promotion measures for university students. Methods Totally 30 609 newly enrolled students from 2008 to 2016 were selected from a university in weifang, and the data of their entrance examination were adjusted to calculate the average mass index of the year. The grey-Markov method was used for forecast and analysis. Results We Built the grey-Markov modified model: G(k)= Y(k)-1/2(A_i+B_i)y.The prediction accuracy was in the first level after the posterior error ratio(C=0.088) and the small error probability(P=0.987) test. The average body mass index of the newly enrolled students of one university during the 2017-2020 years were20. 69, 21.33, 21.39, and 21.45, and the figures of Markov status were 3, 1,2, and 3. Conclusion The university students’ body mass index is in normal range for the period of 2017-2020, but the increase trend is clear. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen physical monitoring, reasonable intervention and health literacy, to guide college students to exercise scientifically and control their weight reasonably in case of the overweight and obesity risk caused by the rise of BMI.更多还原