【摘要】 针对传统SOD模式下城市轨道交通诱增客流预测方法的局限性,通过分析诱增客流形成机理,提出了TOD模式下城市轨道交通诱增客流预测的思路与方法。从交通条件改善角度,提出有无项目对比法,预测开通初期诱增客流;并基于交通引导开发构建生长曲线模型,预测近、远期诱增客流。最后以TOD模式下的北京八通线为例进行验证,所得近期预测值与实际值之间的贴合度为0.9,精度优于传统SOD模式下的诱增客流预测方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 By analyzing the mechanism of induced passenger flow and considering the defects of traditional prediction methods about induced passenger flow in urban rail transit under SOD mode, a prediction method about induced passenger flow in urban rail transit under TOD mode was put forward.Then, from the perspective of improving traffic conditions, the presence or absence comparison method was presented to predict the initial stage of induced passenger flow.Then, a growth curve model based on transit-oriented development was constructed.Finally, taking Batong subway in Beijing as an example under TOD mode, and the results show that the difference between the predicted result and the actual one is 0.9, which is more accurate than the result of the traditional method prediction of induced passenger flow under SOD mode.更多还原