【摘要】 借鉴美国加州南岸空气质量预报经验,特别是其运行管理模式对于现阶段中国城市环境空气质量预测预报具有极高的参考价值。简要介绍了加州南岸空气质量管理局(SCAQMD)空气质量预报业务流程、技术方法、信息发布方式和预报效果评估策略。建议从4个方面借鉴SCAQMD经验:(1)建立相对完善的空气质量预报体系,分层级自上而下指导预报工作;(2)选择合适的空气质量预报方法,综合统筹成本-效益评估工作;(3)评估预报效果进而提高预报准确率;(4)在优化空气质量预报能力的基础上,有序开展预警协同控制工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 The experience of South Coast Air Quality Management District in California( SCAQMD),especially the operation and management model,is of great value to China in predicting urban ambient air quality. In this paper we briefly introduced SCAQMD in the below areas: the air quality forecasting processes,technical methods,and the way of information release and results evaluation. We suggested to learn the experience of SCAQMD from four aspects.(1) To establish a relatively perfect air quality forecast system,establish a " top-down " model to guidance for forecasting.(2) To select the appropriate air quality forecasting method,synthesis considering cost-benefit evaluation effect.(3) To evaluate the forecast results and improve the forecast accuracy.(4) To optimize the air quality forecasting capability,carry out the early warning work orderly.更多还原