【摘要】 为有效保护和合理利用广西红树林,探讨了自2000年到2100年全球海平面上升、地壳上升和潮滩沉积对英罗湾红树林分布的影响。采用机理分析方法建立红树林边界位置预测模型;利用预测模型计算在2000年数字高程模型上定位2100年红树林边界的数据;利用Global Mapper软件在2000年数字高程模型上确定红树林边界的位置。利用Mapinfo professional地理信息系统软件分析海平面上升引起的红树林边界的移动。通过研究得到在2000年数字高程模型上表达2100年红树林边界位置的数据,以及自2000年到2100年红树林边界移动专题地图。结果表明:自2000年到2100年,低、中模式海平面上升,英罗湾红树林边界向外扩展,面积增大;高模式海平面上升,红树林边界向陆移动,面积增大;极端模式海平面上升,红树林边界向陆移动,面积减小。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the impact of global sea level rise, crustal rise and tidal flat sedimentation on the mangrove distribution is explored to protect the mangrove in the Yingluo Bay of Guangxi. The tidal level-predicting models are built through the mechanism analysis. The model is used to calculate data placing seaward and landward mangrove margins of2100 on the digital elevation model of 2000. The seaward and landward mangrove margins are determined on the digital elevation model of 2000 with global mapper software. The data are got placing the seaward and landward mangrove margins of2100 on the digital elevation model of 2000 and the maps of mangrove margin migration from 2000 to 2100. The results suggest three conclusions. First, when global sea level rises at low and moderate mode, the mangrove margins will migrate outward, and mangrove area will increase; Second, when the global sea level rises at high moderate mode, the mangrove margins will migrate landward, and the mangrove area will increase; Finally, when the global sea level rises at the extreme mode, the mangrove margins will migrate landward, and the mangrove area will decrease.更多还原