【摘要】 基于汀江流域控制站(溪口站)1965—2012年日均径流量实测数据及长汀、上杭、永定气象站逐日降水量、逐日气温资料,采用年段均值比较、5a滑动、趋势线分析和累积距平等方法,分析流域近50年来的径流量序列,揭示径流量变化的趋势,判别径流量变化的突变年份,划分径流量变化的阶段.并应用改进后的累积量斜率变化率比较法定量估算了近50年来气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献率.结果表明:(1)径流量总体呈现下降—上升—下降的波动,判别突变年份为1972、2001年,划分径流变化阶段为1965—1972年(A阶段)、1973—2001年(B阶段)、2002—2012年(C阶段);(2)与A阶段相比,B、C阶段气候变化对径流量变化的贡献率分别为65.1%、50.5%,而人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率为34.9%、49.5%,可见人类活动对径流量变化贡献日趋突出.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on 1965-2012 average daily runoff measured data of control hydrometric station( Xi Kou) in the Tingjiang Basin,and daily precipitation and daily temperature of three meteorological stations in the Tingjiang Basin( Chang Ting,Shang Hang,Yong Ding). Paragraph mean comparison,5 a sliding trend line analysis and cumulative anomaly methods are used to analyze runoff series in recent 50 years. The trend of runoff variation is revealed. The mutation years of runoff variation are identified. The stages of runoff variation are divided. The improved cumulative slope rate comparison method is used to quantitatively analyze the contribution rate of the climate change and human activities to runoff variation of Tingjiang in nearly 50 years. The results show that:( 1) The runoff shows a down-updown fluctuation in general,and the mutation year is 1972 and 2001,the variation stages of runoff are 1965-1972( stage A),1973-2001( stage B),2002-2012( stage C).( 2) Comparing with stage A,the contribution rates of climate change to runoff variation in stage B and C are 65.1% and 50.5%,respectively,while the contribution rate of human activities to runoff variation is 34.9% and 49.5%,respectively. This shows that the contribution of human activities to the change of runoff is increasing prominent.更多还原