【摘要】 基于利差、固定资产投资、房地产价格以及股票价格所构建的区域金融失衡指数,以江苏省为研究对象,验证所构建指数的有效性,结合各分项指标对江苏省2007年到2016年的金融运行波动情况进行分析.结果表明:区域金融失衡指数与江苏省的CPI和GDP之间存在格兰杰因果关系,且其对金融失衡趋势更为领先;江苏省金融运行总体呈现平稳状态,虽然各分项指标有较明显的失衡现象,但在综合影响下,区域金融失衡指数相对平稳,很少出现中度及重度失衡现象.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on regional financial imbalance index with interest margin,fixed asset investment,real estate prices and stock prices,taking Jiangsu province as the research object,this study verifies the validity of the constructed index.Combined with each sub index,the paper analyzes the financial operation fluctuation of Jiangsu province from 2007 to 2016.The results show that there is a causal relationship between the Grainger regional financial imbalance index and Jiangsu province CPI and GDP,and the trend of financial imbalances is leading;Jiangsu province overall financial operation is in steady state,while the indices of imbalance is obvious.However,under the comprehensive influence,the regional financial imbalance index is relatively stable,and there are few moderate and severe imbalances.更多还原