【摘要】 文章基于中国2004-2013年289个地级市面板数据,从空间经济学视角探究土地财政对经济增长短期及长期影响,并引入脱钩指数以衡量二者之间数量关系。通过理论分析与实证检验发现:第一,2004-2013年289个地级市土地财政绝对值与相对值存在较大差异,即东部沿海地区土地财政绝对值与相对值远超西部地区,且中部地区土地财政增长幅度相对较高,此外,不管是东部还是中西部地区,土地财政与经济增长二者之间总体呈相对脱钩状态。第二,通过计算全局莫兰指数(MI)发现,不管是基于地理相邻权重、地理距离权重还是经济距离权重,2004-2013年289个地级市土地财政、经济增长全局MI值均大于0,即各地区土地财政、经济增长之间存在正的空间相关性。第三,基于静态空间杜宾模型实证检验发现,不管是基于地理相邻权重、地理距离权重还是经济距离权重,土地财政与经济增长之间存在库兹涅茨倒U型曲线,即土地财政短期有利于促进经济增长,但过度土地财政会抑制经济增长,此外,财政分权、城镇化、房价等因素均会对经济增长造成影响。鉴于此,为合理利用土地财政促进经济与社会可持续发展,本文提出应正确看待土地财政,改革土地、财税与官员晋升制度,并加强各地区之间交流合作。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper, based on the panel data collected from 289 prefecture-level cities in China between 2004 and 2013, discusses, from a spatial economics perspective, how land finance influences short and longterm economic growth. It then goes on to introduce the decoupling index to measure the quantitative relationship between land finance and economic growth. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, reached are the following conclusions. Firstly, there exists a substantial regional difference between the absolute and relative land finance value in the 289 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 through 2013. To be more exact, the eastern coastal regions exhibit a much higher absolute and relative value than the central and western regions. Further-more, in both the eastern coastal regions and the central and western regions, a relative decoupling relationshipis always found between the local land finance and economic growth. Secondly, by calculating the global Moranindex(MI), it is found that, whether it is based on geographic proximity weights, geographic distance weights oreconomic distance weights, both the land finance and economic growth in 289 Chinese prefecture-level citiesare greater than 0 from 2004 through 2013, presenting a positive spatial correlation between the land financeand economic growth in the area during the said period. Finally, through the static Spatial Dubin Model empiri-cal test, it is found that whether it is based on geographic proximity weights, geographic distance weights or eco-nomic distance weights, the relationship between land finance and economic growth shows an inverted U-shapedcurve, which means that while the land finance is conducive to short-term economic growth, excessive land fi-nance will curb economic growth in the long run. The paper, therefore, recommends that, in order to make fulland reasonable use of land finance to promote sustainable economic growth and social development, concretemeasures should be taken to treat land finance cautiously, to reform the land fiscal and taxation systems as well as the promotion mechanism for officials, and to strengthen the interregional cooperations.更多还原