【摘要】 基于GGDC最新公布的中国多部门数据和修正的转移-份额方法,文章考察了1978—2010年中国产业结构变化和劳动生产率波动的关系,然后据此分析了2008年以来经济增长速度放缓的原因。结果表明,中国经济增长减速的原因不在于结构效应或者刘易斯效应的减弱,也不在于产业结构的服务化趋势,而是制造业和农业,尤其是制造业的内部生产率增长大幅下降。2000—2010年,制造业的生产率增速较之20世纪90年代下降了近1倍,农业部门的生产率增长率下降了0.3%。制造业生产率增速放缓的原因在于高技术行业的缓慢增长,而制造业技术结构的静态化很可能使经济陷入"中等收入陷阱"。从1978年到2010年,结构效应经历了"J"型变化,对劳动生产率和人均GDP平均增长率的贡献分别为30%和26%。1978—2010年,从农业部门流出的劳动力有2/3进入了服务业,由于服务业的平均劳动生产率高于农业,结构效应因此为正,但是该部门的结构效应一直比较低,这说明进入服务业的劳动力流向了该部门中生产率较低的行业,促进生产性服务业的发展有助于避免鲍默尔效应或结构减速的出现。当前中国各产业间的生产率还存在较大差异,尤其是农业劳动生产率远低于非农业生产率,刘易斯效应和结构效应仍将会在较长一段时间内存在。但是,部门内部生产率不能有效提高将会使部门间的生产率差异和结构效应迅速消失,经济增长将收敛于一个低水平的稳态。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on China’s Multi-Sector data opened by the GGDC 10-sector database and the modified shift-share analysis,this paper examines the relationship between structural transformation and aggregate productivity fluctuation from 1978 to 2010 in order to explain China’s growth slowdown since 2008. Our results show that the decelerating of China ’s economic growth is not because the weakening of structural transformation( i. e. Lewis effect) or development of the service sector,but because the decelerating of productivity growth of the manufacturing and agriculture,especially manufacturing. Between 2000 and 2010,productivity growth in manufacturing reduced to half of that of 1990 s,agriculture productivity growth fallen by0. 3%. It is the lack of development of high-tech sectors that contributed to the slowdown of manufacturing,which may cause the economy fall into the middle-income trap. Our results also show that the contribution made by structural change exhibits a J-shaped pattern over the sample period,which helped the aggregate productivity and GDP per capita grow by 30% and 26% respectively. Over the sample period,about two-thirds of labor away from agriculture is reallocated toward services. However,because much of these labor entered the low-tech sectors of services,the effect of structural transformation in services was not significant. The China’s inter-sectoral productivity gaps are still wide now,so the structural change will play an important role in the future even if Lewis effect disappeared.更多还原