【摘要】 文章基于现有文献对全国杠杆率的测算方法,对2003-2015年全国31个省区的杠杆率进行了测算,之后基于Cobb Douglas生产函数构建了以经济增长为被解释变量,以杠杆率为门槛变量的省级面板门槛模型,实证得出杠杆率升高会降低资本对经济增长的拉动作用,分析了其原因在于资金使用效率下降和实体部门利润外流。最后提出了各省区应根据自己的情况有针对性地去杠杆、提高债务所形成资金的使用效率等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper, based on the existing literatures on the country’s leverage calculation method, calculates the leverage ratio of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2015, then builds the provincial panel threshold model with economic growth as an explanatory variableand leverage ratio as a threshold variable in accordance with Cobb Douglas production function. The empirical analysis shows that the in-crease of leverage ratio will reduce the pulling effect of capital on economic growth. The reason is the decline of the capital efficiency andthe outflow of profit in the entity department. Finally, the paper suggests every province should de-leverage according to its own situationand enhance the capital efficiency.更多还原