【摘要】 为了探明河南省粮食产量变化的主要驱动力,明确不同因素对粮食产量变化影响的大小,基于1978-2014年面板数据,运用主成分分析法,建立计量经济模型对该期间影响河南省粮食产量波动的因素进行研究。结果表明,影响河南省粮食产量变化的前三位驱动力分别为经济发展与农业资本投入、劳动与土地投入、成本-收益。具体来看,河南省粮食产量与社会经济水平呈正相关关系,粮食产量的增长主要取决于农业机械总动力、化肥施用量、农村用电量,弹性系数高达0.045;第一产业就业人数对粮食产量增长为正影响,其弹性系数为0.028;受灾面积对粮食产量增长呈负影响,弹性系数为-0.022;耕地面积、粮食播种面积对粮食产量增长的贡献不显著,弹性系数分别为0.021、0.020;而农业生产资料价格指数与粮食零售价格指数对粮食产量影响极小,弹性系数仅为0.006与0.003。更多还原

【Abstract】 To ascertain the main driving factors for grain yield change of Henan province and verify the influence of different factors on the change, an econometric model was built based on the panel data from 1978 to 2014 and principal component analysis, to explore the factors influencing the grain yield of Henan province during the period. The results showed that, the top three driving factors were economic development and agricultural capital investment, labor input, costs and benefits respectively. Specifically, the grain yield of Henan province was positive correlated with socio-economy level, which mainly depended on the total powers of agriculture machine, chemical fertilizer and rural power consumption, and the coefficient of elasticity was up to 0.045. While the employment in the primary industry had a "positive" influence on grain yield increase and the coefficient of elasticity was 0.028. The agricultural disaster area had a "negative" influence on grain yield increase and the coefficient of elasticity was-0.022. The contribution of the arable land area and grain acreage for grain yield growth was not significant and the coefficients of elasticity were 0.021 and 0.020 respectively, while the price index of agricultural means production and grain retail price index had less influence on grain yield, and the coefficients of elasticity were only0.006 and 0.003.更多还原