【摘要】 本文尝试对DCF模型进行改进,一方面,简化自由现金流量的计算,简化后自由现金流量模型中各个项目的数据,均可以从财务报表里直接获取;另一方面,引入计量经济学中的时间序列分析法——自回归求积移动平均法(ARIMA),它主要研究经济时间序列自身的随机性质,根据上市公司的历史自由现金流量预测未来自由现金流量,使价值投资研究更加客观、准确。本文运用改进的DCF模型对贵州茅台进行了价值投资研究,并对白酒行业和贵州茅台进行了因素分析,得出了贵州茅台股票的内在价值高于当前股价,安全边际为32.34%。近半年来,股价不断向内在价值靠拢,验证了改进的DCF模型在上市公司内在价值评估研究中的适用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper attempts to improve the DCF model,on the one hand,to simplify the calculation of free cash flow,then the data of each project in the free cash flow can be directly obtained from the financial statements;on the other hand,to introduce the econometric time sequence analysis-Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),which focuses on the analysis of the random nature of economic time series itself,and predicts future free cash flow according to the history of listed companies free cash flow,thus make the value of investment research more objective and accurate.In this paper,I use the improved DCF model to research Maotai invested value,and do a factor analysis in the liquor industry and Maotai.I find the intrinsic value of the Maotai stock is higher than current share price,and the margin of safety is 32.34%.In the past six months,share prices continue to go closer to intrinsic value which verify the applicability of the improved DCF model in the intrinsic value of listed companies in the assessment study.更多还原