【摘要】 本文构建了一个以房价波动为基础的DSGE模型,以数值模拟为主要研究方法,考察了房价波动的宏观审慎政策与货币政策协调效应。基于我国经济的模拟分析得出三个基本结论:(1)从协调机制来看,宏观审慎政策与货币政策应当分别以房价稳定与物价稳定为目标,均采用标准的泰勒规则,而非其他更为复杂的多目标规则。(2)从协调策略来看,针对不同类型的房地产市场制定有差别的宏观审慎政策,同时配合货币政策,这样既能发挥宏观审慎政策对房价调控的结构性功能,又能弥补货币政策对房价总量调控的不足。(3)从协调效应来看,协调不仅能够实现对房价波动的有效调控,而且能够实现社会福利损失的最小化。更多还原

【Abstract】 By implanting housing price volatility into the DSGE model based on China’s economic data, this paper studies the coordination effect of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy on housing price volatility. Three basic conclusions are drawn by the numerical simulation analysis. First, from the perspective of coordination mechanism, macro-prudential policy and monetary policy should peg housing price and inflation, respectively. Meantime, the two policies all prefer simple normal Taylor rule rather than other complex multi-objective rules. Second, from the perspective of coordination strategy, by implementing the discriminating macro-prudential policy according to the different types of real estate market, macro-prudential policy not only effectively smoothes housing price volatility, but also offsets the defect of monetary policy regulating the real estate. Third, from the perspective of coordination effect, the coordination of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy not only smoothes housing price volatility, but also minimizes the net loss of social welfare.更多还原