【摘要】 以新疆克里雅河绿洲为研究靶区,从社会、经济、自然复合生态系统三方面构建指标体系,采用全排列多边形综合图示指标法对克里雅河绿洲2003-2013年的复合生态系统生态位进行了量化评价。结果表明:1)2003-2013年克里雅河绿洲三个子系统生态位的高低排序由2003年的资源生态位>经济生态位>社会生态位演变为2013年的经济生态位>社会生态位>资源生态位;2)克里雅河绿洲经济生态位与资源生态位总体趋势呈负相关,经济生态位和社会生态位基本呈现正相关;3)2003-2013年克里雅河绿洲生态位变化揭示了克里雅河绿洲近11a来综合生态位和资源、经济、社会各子系统生态位的发展变化;4)运用BP神经网络模型预测2014-2018年该绿洲的生态位综合指数预测值分别为:0.6964,0.7680,0.8312,0.8619,0.8765。更多还原

【Abstract】 Keriya River Oasis was taken as the research site,the index system was constructed from three aspects of social,economic and natural complex ecosystem,and permutations polygon comprehensive graphic method was applied to evaluate quantitatively the ecological niche of complex ecosystem of Keriya River Oasis from 2003 to 2013. Results showed that in 2003 to 2013,the sort of niches of three subsystems for Keriya was: resource niche > economic niche > social niche; in 2013 they evolved to: economic niche > social niche > resource niche. The economic niche was negatively correlated with economic resource niche,and positively correlated with social niche in Keriya Oasis. From 2003 to 2013,the niche change in Keriya revealed the developments of integrated niche,resources,economic and social subsystems niche in recent 11 years. Using the BP neural network model to predict the oasis ecological niche in 2014-2018. Forecasted composite indexes are: 0. 6964,0.7680,0. 8312,0. 8619 and 0. 8765. It showed an upward trend in the future 5a for Keriya River Oasis niche.更多还原