【摘要】 "高可靠,少失效"的机械产品或系统特征使得可靠性评估变得愈发困难。针对这一问题,提出了一种基于三参数威布尔分布的小样本失效数据的机械可靠性评估方法。在确定寿命分布模型的基础上对小样本失效数据采用灰色估计法进行三参数估计,并进行拟合优度检验,进而通过蒙特卡洛抽样得到的子样作为参数的贝叶斯先验分布。在此基础上通过贝叶斯公式计算三参数后验分布,继而得到系统的可靠度、失效率等可靠性指标,更加准确地对小样本失效数据的机械可靠性进行评估。实际算例验证了方法的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 "Higher reliability, less failure" features of mechanical products or system make reliability assessment more difficult. To address this problem, an evaluation method of small sample of three parameter Weibull distribution is proposed based on the data of failure of mechanical reliability. Based on the determination of life distribution model, the failure data of small sample is estimated by using the grey estimation method, and the goodness of fit test is carried out, then Bayes prior distribution obtained by Monte Carlo sample as a parameter. On this basis, the three-parameter posterior distribution can be calculated by Bayes formula, and then the system reliability, failure rate and so on are derived, to evaluate the mechanical reliability of small sample failure data more accurately. The effectiveness of the method is verified by a practical example.更多还原