【摘要】 "十三五"时期绿色发展将成为生态文明建设的主基调,文章构建时间序列的出口贸易碳排放动态计量模型,以经济结构具有典型性的江苏省数据为基础,实证检验碳排放与出口贸易之间的短期动态关系以及长期均衡关系。研究表明:出口贸易碳排放EKC假设不成立,二氧化碳排放量与出口额之间存在长期协整关系,快速增长的外贸出口是碳排放增长的重要的驱动因素,而且影响日益增大。进一步提出应对温室气体排放,实现低碳化的绿色经济,应从优化外贸结构角度探讨减排的新途径,构建全球价值链体系,加强政府引导作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the 13 th five-year plan period,the green development will become the main stream of ecological civilization construction.In this paper,we construct a dynamic econometric model of carbon emissions from the time series,and take the data of Jiangsu Province for example and empirically test the short-term dynamic and long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and export trade.The results show that the Kuznets curve of carbon emissions in the region is not set up,the co-integration relationship will be presented between export trade and carbon emission in the long term,and the rapid growth of foreign trade is an important driving factor for the growth of carbon emissions,and the impact is growing.Further we put forward the idea that in order to deal with the greenhouse gas emissions,to achieve low-carbon green economy,we should optimize the foreign trade structure to explore new ways to cut emissions,to build global value chain system,to further strengthen the government’s guiding role.更多还原