【摘要】 为了把握医药卫生和人口健康领域国内外技术发展趋势,适应国家重大战略需求,开展未来20年我国医药卫生和人口健康领域关键技术预见,旨在促进我国居民健康及经济、社会发展。以国内外现有技术预见成果、文献计量和专利分析等为基础,提出备选技术需求清单,向领域内科技专家和产业专家进行德尔菲问卷调查。根据问卷调查结果,结合专家研判,提出了面向2035年我国工程科技医药卫生和人口健康领域的前10项重要关键技术、重要共性技术和重要颠覆性技术,分析了关键技术的实现时间、发展水平和制约因素,为医药卫生和人口健康领域重大工程建设提供了科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Key technology foresight in the fields of medical and population health is very important to China’s population health, economy, and social development.Such foresight permits technological development trends in medical and population health to be grasped, thereby meeting major national strategic demands.In this paper, a list of alternative technologies is put forward on the basis of technology foresight, bibliometrics, and patent analysis(both domestic and international).A Delphi investigation of the list was carried out among experts in the fields of medical technology and medical industry all over the country.A total of 10 major key technologies, 10 major common technologies, and 10 major disruptive technologies were put forward, by analyzing the results of the Delphi investigation in combination with the experts’ judgment.The realization time, development level, and limiting factors of these major technologies were also analyzed.The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the raising of major projects in the fields of medical and population health.更多还原