【摘要】 本文整理、考订了南宋时期杭州偏晚终雪记录,诊断了此类资料的气候指示意义,进行了各年代不同数量终雪日期值至对应年代平均终雪日期值的转换,进而分析了重建序列所指示的温度变化特征与其他文献证据、气候变化重建结果之间的一致性。结果表明:(1)史料记述的杭州偏晚终雪现象系以惊蛰以后为标准,且不包括霰和冰粒类微量降雪类型,其有着明确的气候指示意义(-0.34oC/10d,R2=0.37,P<0.001),可有效用于温度重建。(2)基于非线性的波尔兹曼函数,以不同样本量偏晚终雪日期值可有效估算10年平均终雪日期,其外推结果较之线性函数和二项式函数具有更小的不确定性。(3)南宋时期杭州春季的平均温暖程度大致相当于1951-1980年,该时期在百年尺度上可划分为1131-1170年的寒冷期和1171-1270年的温暖期。其中,后一阶段有1181-1200年和1221-1240年两个亚冷期。(4)南宋时期杭州10年平均终雪日期的变化与中国其他地区温度变化的代用证据和重建结果具有较好的一致性,并与太平洋十年涛动的冷暖位相变化比较吻合,这可能说明了中世纪暖期太平洋十年涛动对中国大部分地区气候所具有的共同影响。本文为更深入认识12-13世纪中国东部季风区的气候变化特征提供了新的证据。更多还原

【Abstract】 We collected and verified documentary records of the latest spring snowing dates(LSSD) in Hangzhou during the Southern Song Dynasty. Further, the statistical correlation between this proxy and February-April mean temperature in this region was examined, and samples later than the perennial mean of the LSSD during the study period were transformed into the decadal mean of LSSD by means of Boltzmann function. General characteristics of this reconstructed LSSD series with a 10-year temporal resolution were analyzed, compared with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for 1131-1270 AD. The results suggested that:(1) Records of the LSSD in Hangzhou during the study period did not refer to ice pellets and graupels, which had an explicit climatic significance(-0.34 oC/10 d, R2=0.37, P<0.001). However, when this proxy was used to reconstruct temperature changes, all dates should be converted in Gregorian style and meet the same criterion of "true Qi" as the Chinese traditional calendar after 1929 AD.(2) The decadal mean of LSSD can be effectively estimated by using the forefront of LSSD in the decade on the basis of Boltzmann function,whose extrapolation has a less uncertainty than that on the basis of linear models or polynomial models.(3) The spring in Hangzhou during 1131-1270 AD was almost as warm as the period1951-1980 AD. At the centennial scale, this period can be divided into two phases: the cold1131-1170 AD and the warm 1171-1270 AD. In the latter, 1181-1200 AD and 1221-1240 AD were two cold intervals at the multi-decadal scale.(4) The reconstructed LSSD series was well consistent with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for1131-1270 AD, which may reflect the mutual influence on the climate over most of China imposed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).更多还原