【摘要】 2017年时值中韩建交25周年,当前中韩贸易高度集中于电子、机电设备和化工产品是由中韩在这些产品全球价值链上的优势地位所决定,贸易商品结构和流向是由两国相对位置所决定,这也可解释多年的中韩贸易逆差。"萨德"入韩改变了中韩贸易发展的良好态势,从贸易视角看,韩国低估了其对中国的非对称经贸依赖关系,而高估了韩国在全球价值链上对中国的优势。采用双重差分(DID)思路,发现在宣布部署"萨德"前,韩国对华贸易和出口表现都要优于中国整体贸易表现,而后韩国对华贸易和出口表现都差于中国整体表现。中韩贸易未来发展面临不确定性,可能会经历不同发展阶段,而"一带一路"倡议将可能成为两国贸易发展的新动力。更多还原

【Abstract】 The year 2017 is the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Republic of Korea.At present,China-ROK trade is highly concentrated in electronics,mechanical and electrical equipment and chemical products,which is in line with the dominant position of these products in the global value chain.The structure and flow of the trade commodity are determined by the relative position of the two countries,which can also explain the trade deficit between China and ROK in these years.However,THAAD deployment in ROK has changed the good momentum of the trade between China and South Korea.From a trade perspective,ROK has underestimated its asymmetric economic and trade dependence on China,and has overvalued its own relative dominance over China in the global value chain.By introducing Difference-in-Differences(DID)analysis,this paper finds that the performance of ROK’s trade with China was superior to that of China’s overall trade before announcing the deployment of THAAD and the situation reversed afterwards.The future of China-ROK trade is uncertain and is expected to experience different stages of development.However,the Belt and Road initiative may fuel the trade between the two countries in future.更多还原