【摘要】 城市气象灾害防御措施的改进是防灾减灾的有效手段,但如何在辨识公众支付意愿的基础上,构建多方成本分担的灾害防御制度是解决问题的关键。从成本分担的视角出发,以南京暴雨灾害防御为例,分析公众对增强型城市气象灾害防御的支付意愿及认知资源在其中的重要作用。通过构建由Probit模型和有序Probit模型组成的递归混合模型,探讨认知资源和经济资源在公众支付决策中的重要性。研究表明:认知资源的作用十分明显,且随着公众对暴雨灾害风险感知、防御措施了解程度、防御制度认可程度的提高,公众支付意愿越强。而暴雨灾害风险感知又受到灾害趋势认知和经历的共同影响,这两个变量分别影响风险感知的广度和深度,但受教育程度对风险感知深度的影响并不显著。核心建议是从满足公众对城市暴雨灾害风险、防御措施、灾害趋势等知识的需求,政府应该加强暴雨灾害科普宣传的主动性、提升主管和协同部门的公信力;规范科普知识内容、拓宽科普渠道。更多还原

【Abstract】 The improvement of urban meteorological disaster prevention measures is an effective mean to prevent and alleviate the disaster. However,how to build a multi-cost-sharing disaster prevention system on the basis of identifying public’s willingness to pay is the key to solve the problem. Taking Nanjing rainstorm disaster as an example,this paper analyzes the public’s willingness to pay for urban meteorological disasters prevention and the important role of cognitive resources in it from the perspective of cost sharing. The importance of cognitive resources and economic resources in public payment decision is discussed based on the recursive mixed-process models consisted of probit model and ordered probit model. The research shows that the importance of cognitive resources is obvious,and the risk perception about rainstorm disaster,cognition degree about defensive measure,and reliability of preventative system have expedited public’s willingness to pay. The risk perception of rainstorm disaster is affected by the cognition and experience of disaster trend,which influence the breadth and depth of risk perception respectively,while the influence of education level on risk perception is not significant. To meet the public demand for urban storm disaster risk, defensive measures and disaster trends, it is better for government to strengthen the initiative of popularizing rainstorm disaster,enhance the credibility of supervisors and coordination departments,standardize the popular science content and broaden the popular channels.更多还原