【摘要】 针对我国公路风吹雪自然灾害突发性、频发性强而传统单因素评价存在不足的现状,基于模糊综合评价法建立公路风吹雪危险度的模糊综合模型,分析影响公路风吹雪危险的主要因素。为使各影响因素与评价指标的关系更全面且系统,先综合考虑自然与人为2个方面的因素,共确定出10个主要评价指标;再采用模糊综合评价法求得各指标权重;然后结合隶属函数最大原则,对公路风吹雪危险度进行评判和预测。最后,采用该模型对新疆塔城S201线的典型路段进行危险度判断,所得到的结果与实际基本相符。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper would like to present a new risk assessment method in regard to the snowdrift effect on the highway transportation and traffic in the climatic conditions like Xinjiang Autonomous Region. In the paper,we have managed to establish a few set of systems,like the factor sets,the evaluation sets and the evaluation weight sets for the risk assessment indexes of snowdrift through the method of comprehensive fuzzy hierarchical evaluation. In order to clarify the relation between the influential factors and the evaluation indicators,we have divided the influential factors into two aspects: the natural factors and the human activity involved factors. To be exact,such factors,like the landform,snowfall size,wind speed,wind direction trends,the depth of the snow cover,the rationality of the road design and construction survey,in addition to the road maintenance and human activities with ten safety evaluation indexes. At the same time,we have also assessed all the indexes by using the weighted average operators,with the results gained properly normalized and regularized.The results of our application of the proposed model show that the risk degree of snowdrift on the highways to be in accord with the principle of maximum membership. What is more,we have also combined a vivid description of an actual case study samples( the typical section of S201 in Ta Cheng,Xinjiang),which involves the investigation and analysis of the actual status-in-situ. Nevertheless,according to the above application results,the risk probabilities have been identified and determined respectively as grade B2. Moreover,the risks research sphere involved should be made more comprehensive,more targeted so as to be made in line with the actually existing conditions. Besides,the results of our evaluation have shown that the fuzzy hierarchical evaluation model can successfully be used for safety risk assessment of the risk degree of the snowdrift on the highways more reliable and effective.Thus,it can be expected that our study results may be of significantly theoretical and practical value for assessing the risk degree of the snowdrift on the highway systems in Xinjiang and in turn to provide a referential basis and technical support for the evaluation of such like projects.更多还原