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关于我国未来经济增长基本条件的三个问题

Some Issues Concerning China’s Economic Growth in the Future

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【作者】 林岗王裕雄吴崇宇杨巨

【Author】 Lin Gang;Wang Yuxiong;Wu Chongyu;Yang Ju;School of Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Sport Economics and Management,Central University of Finance and Economics;China Credit Institute,Peking University;School of Economics,Xiangtan University;

【机构】 中国人民大学经济学院中央财经大学体育经济与管理学院北京大学中国信用研究中心湘潭大学经济学院

【摘要】 近几年,我国经济增速持续放缓,对于这一现象存在多种解读。本文对其中的几种与事实不符或以偏概全的解读加以澄清。我们认为,第一,"人口红利消失"并不能很好地解释经济增速下降。如果我国劳动生产率仍然保持较高增速,未来的经济增长就能以较高的速度持续下去。第二,指责我国投资率过高、投资缺乏效率的说法也是值得商榷的。较大的投资规模和较高的投资效率是推动我国过去经济高速增长的重要力量,也是今后我国经济快速增长的重要保障。第三,认为我国劳动力成本上升从而导致国际竞争力下降的看法也是不成立的。与其他一些国家相比,我国仍具有许多优势,且我国出口逐渐转向资本、技术密集型产品。"中国制造"的竞争力仍然强劲。

【Abstract】 In recent years,China’s economic growth continued to slow down,and there are different interpretations to this phenomenon.In this article,we clarify some of those interpretations which are contradictory to the facts.Firstly,we argue that the interpretation arguing"the population dividend disappears" can not explain the decline in economic growth.If labor productivity continues to grow at relatively high speed,then China will be able to maintain relatively fast economic growth in the future.Secondly,another interpretation,which argues that China’s investment rate is too high and investment is inefficient,is also problematic.The massive and efficient investment has played a crucial role in China’s economic growth in the past,and will continue to play a crucial role in the future.Finally,the interpretation arguing that the increase in labor costs has led to the decline in China’s international competitiveness is not wellfounded.Compared to many other countries,China still keeps the cost advantage,and China’s exports have increasingly shift to capital-and technology-intensive products."Made in China"still stands for strong competitiveness.

【基金】 国家社科基金重点课题“我国未来中长期经济增长基本条件研究”的部分成果
  • 【文献出处】 政治经济学评论 ,China Review of Political Economy , 编辑部邮箱 ,2016年03期
  • 【分类号】F124
  • 【被引频次】4
  • 【下载频次】339
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