【摘要】 在确定中小河流选取标准及其洪水气象预报等级的基础上,面向中小河流洪水气象预报业务的需求提出一种统计预报方法,即根据雷达定量降水估测的流域面雨量、前期影响雨量方法确定流域的径流深,综合考虑中小河流的前1 d水位、径流深、当日水位,利用2013-2014年的6-9月陕南中小河流的水文观测站逐日水位、流域内自动气象站降雨量、雷达回波资料,建立以水位预报为目标的二元回归方程。以子午河为例建立的洪水气象预报方程和其他中小河流在2015年汛期的业务应用结果表明:该统计方法建立的洪水气象预报方程和实际情况较为吻合,能较为准确、简洁地预报中小河流发生洪水的气象可能性等级。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on determining standard of the small- and medium-sized rivers and its flood levels,It is put forward that a statistical forecasting method for small- and medium-sized rivers flood can meet the operational demand in this paper. Runoff depth is calculated on the base of area rainfall of river basin from radar quantity precipitation estimation and previous influence rainfall. Comprehensively considering the water level of the last day,runoff depth and water level of the same day,the binaryregression equation aimed at water level prediction is constructed by using the data of daily water level and the rainfall amount of automatic meteorological station,radar echo over river basin from June to September during 2013- 2014. The example of Ziwu river and the other rivers are operated during the flood season in 2015,the results show that the flood forecasting equations constructed by this method can forecast accurately the class of meteorological possibility for the small- and medium-sized river flood,and it is very simple.更多还原