【摘要】 低碳技术创新是解决高排放的重要手段,本文首先针对低碳技术创新复杂系统进行分析,根据政企双方在不同时期、不同阶段的博弈状态和博弈形成机理,建立了动态赋时博弈模型,分析了政府的决策做出对企业低碳技术创新系统性能指标的时间量特性影响。政企在低碳技术创新行为决策博弈中,某一时段的目标函数取决于当前双方的博弈状态和前一时段演进过程中博弈结果。然后,建立了动态博弈下的企业目标决策模型和动态博弈下政府目标决策模型,以利润最大化来组织生产的企业,政府的低碳规制会直接影响企业低碳技术创新决策行为,政府的低碳经济与环境保护责任目标要求企业的单位排放量的销售额是稳定增加的,或者单位销售额的排放量的稳定下降,这就要求不断地进行低碳技术创新。最后,给出了双重集成引导低碳规制的路径选择方法,并以安徽省部分调研企业数据为例进行了仿真应用验证,验证结果表明所设计的低碳规制路径的合理性,为低碳环境下政府制定合适的引导企业低碳技术创新政策规制提供了科学的参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Low-carbon technology innovation is an important means to solve the high emissions.Firstly,the complex of low-carbon technology innovation system is analyzed.A dynamic timed game model is established and the influence of government decision-making to time characteristics of enterprise low-carbon technology innovation system is analyzed according to game state and game formation mechanism between government and enterprise in different periods and different stages.In this decision-making game which is between governments and enterprises regarding to the behavior of low carbon technology innovation,the object function in certain period is based on current game state and the game result for previous progress.After that,set up the enterprise objective decision-making model under the dynamic game and government objective decision-making model under the dynamic game.The government’s low carbon regulation will directly affect the behavior of low carbon technology innovation decisions,this business is to maximize profits for the purpose to organize the production of enterprises.The government goal of low carbon economy and environmental protection responsibility requires a steady increasing of enterprise’s sales in certain amount emission per unit,or stable steady decreasing in emission per unit amount of sales.This requires constant low-carbon technology innovation.Finally,the double integration path selection method is given for guiding low-carbon regulation.The application simulation is verified based on the data of some enterprises investigated in Anhui Province.Validation results show that the low-carbon regulation path is reasonable.So that government could establish scientific and suitable policy guiding enterprise low-carbon technology innovation in low carbon environment.更多还原