【摘要】 准确的地震预测是减轻地震灾害损失最有效和最经济的途径,但目前地震预测依然是世界性的科学难题之一。对地震成因的认识水平决定了地震预测能力。地球系统科学思想的提出使得我们应该从地球圈层相互作用的角度来思考地震现象。本文在长期研究地温与气候变化关系的基础上,结合地震资料进行统计分析,发现中国大陆强震发生前,在降水异常场和地温距平上有典型的演变规律,并总结出中国大陆强震月季预测的三步法。该方法在预测实践中至少对地震三要素的两个有较好的把握。在进一步分析地球系统各子系统的特征基础上,提出了地震成因的外核对流顶托假说。更多还原

【Abstract】 The most effective and efficient way to reduce the losses resulting from earthquakes is accurate prediction.Effective earthquake prediction remains one of the most pressing scientific issues due to a lack of understanding of their causes.Put simply,we do not know how the Earth’s interior works.One of the milestones in earth science is the emerging concept of an Earth system,which helps in understanding earthquakes in terms of interactions among the Earth’s different spheres(i.e.,sub-systems).In this paper,by combining the results of the relationship between the Earth’s thermal(soil temperature)and climatic(precipitation)conditions with earthquake data from mainland China,it is found that there are some evolution patterns and regularities in monthly soil-temperature and precipitation anomalies.A three-step approach to monthly/seasonal strong-earthquake prediction in China is summarized.This approach is effective in earthquake prediction tests.At least two of the three elements(time,location,and magnitude)of an earthquake can be predicted within the allowable error range.Finally,a hypothesis about the jacking effect of convection in the outer core on the causes of earthquakes is proposed by analyzing the physical characteristics of the sub-systems of the Earth system.更多还原