【摘要】 大规模突发事件应急初期信息的不确定性,使得应急物资需求量与应急供应点到需求点的时间难以确定。以受灾点的满意度为最终目标,研究大规模突发事件应急初期不确定性情况下应急物资的调度决策问题。通过引入灰色白化函数的上下限测度白化函数,构建应急需求满意度和时间满意度最大化的多目标灰色规划模型。以汶川地震中挖掘机的调度为例,进行模型验证。结果表明:由重庆向汶川调度8台挖掘机、向青川调度7台挖掘机,由兰州向北川调度10台挖掘机,由西安向北川调度12台挖掘机时,应急需求满意度达到最大值2.4,应急时间满意度达到最大值32.1。该模型有助于提高应急物资调度决策的准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the initial stage of large-scale emergency, uncertain information makes it difficult to determine emergency material demand and the emergency time from supply points to the demand points. Taking the satisfactory degree of disaster points as the ultimate goal, the problem of emergency material dispatching in the initial stage of large-scale emergency with the uncertainty was studied. A multi-objective grey programming model was built after introducing the upper and lower limit measure definite weighted functions. Maximization of satisfaction degrees of both emergency demand and emergency time was taken as the object of the model.The model was verified by the example of Wenchuan earthquake about excavator dispatching. The results show that: the excavator dispatching quantity is 8 from Chongqing to Wenchuan. The excavator dispatching quantity is 7 from Chongqing to Qingchuan; the excavator dispatching quantity is 10 from Lanzhou to Beichuan. The excavator dispatching quantity is 12 from Xi’an to Beichuan. The maximum of the satisfactory degree of emergency demand is 2.4, the maximum of the satisfactory degree of emergency time is 32.1,and that the model is helpful to improve the accuracy of the decision making on emergency material dispatching.更多还原