【摘要】 本文运用可计算一般均衡模型,结合TPP公布文本中对商品和服务贸易自由化措施对TPP的经济效果进行评估,同时比较分析了TPP条件下RCEP和亚太自贸区商品贸易自由化的经济效果。结果表明,TPP的发展中成员在商贸自由化中获得的相对收益较大,发达成员则在服贸自由化中相对收益更大;TPP的商品和服务贸易自由化会对其他APEC成员造成负面冲击;东亚国家可以通过RCEP来化解TPP的冲击;亚太自贸区更能代表多数APEC成员的利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper evaluates the economic effects of merchandise trade liberalization and service trade liberalization performed by TPP using CGE model incorporated with the protocols of TPP.This paper also compares the economic effects of merchandise trade liberalization by RCEP and FTAAP.The results show that developing countries in TPP benefit more in merchandise trade liberalization while developed countries in TPP benefit more in service trade liberalization.TPP will decrease the welfare of other APEC countries.RCEP will help East Asia countries overcome the shock of TPP while FTAAP will benefit most of the APEC countries.更多还原