【摘要】 针对突发事件的复杂性和决策团队损失规避的心理行为特征,提出了基于多粒度不确定语言和前景理论的应急方案选择方法。首先,决策成员使用偏好的不确定语言短语表征各项关键指标的重要性,使用转换函数对这些多粒度不确定语言信息进行一致性转换;在此基础上,通过不确定的扩展加权平均算子得到群体评估向量,进而采用不确定语言决策理论得到各项关键指标的权重向量;引入前景理论的思想,计算采用不同备选方案情况时各项关键指标不同场景的价值和感知权重;进一步,将采用不同备选方案时关键指标的感知价值和权重向量集结,得到各个备选方案的综合感知价值,并据此确定最优的应急方案;最后,通过一个实例验证了所提方法的实用性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 For reflecting the complexity of emergency event and the characteristics of decision-makers’ psychology and behavior in an effective way,an approach for selecting emergency alternative based on multi-granularity uncertain linguistics and prospect theory is presented.Firstly, multi-granularity uncertain linguistic variables are used to represent the importance of each key attribute,and some transformation functions are used to unify the multi-granular linguistic phrases into a uniform linguistic label set.Secondly,the group evaluation vector of key attributes is obtained by using the uncertain expanded weighted average operator.Then the weight of key attributes is obtained based on uncertain linguistic decision-making theory.Thirdly,the ideas of prospect theory are introduced to calculate the values and the perceived weights of each key attribute’s scenarios of emergency alternatives.According to combination of the weights of key attributes and the perceived attribute values of emergency alternatives,the comprehensive values of each alternative are determined to obtain the best alternative.A case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed approach.更多还原