【摘要】 利用微观调查及官方宏观数据,应用生存分析方法对住房全面市场化背景下潜在首次购房者的购房行为特征和影响因素进行纵贯研究。基于哈尔滨样本研究的结果表明,个体从正式参加工作至首次购房平均需要5.93年,工作5年后约49%可实现首次购房;年龄、文化程度、家庭生命周期阶段及父辈文化程度在微观层面对个体首次购房概率产生显著正向影响;宏观层面的房价涨速越快、首套房贷利率优惠比例越大以及土地供应速度越快会显著提高个体的首次购房概率,鼓励性和抑制性的交易营业税收政策则均会产生抑制效果。因此,政府应继续实施并深化差别化信贷政策、保障住房用地供应水平,进一步稳定公众的房价心理预期,倡导住房梯度消费观念。更多还原

【Abstract】 The behavioral characteristics of potential first-time housing consumers and their impact factors,under the market-oriented background of housing policy,are studied longitudinally using Survival Analysis method.The results based on samples from Harbin show that,individuals need 5.93 years of work,on average,to get first homeownership,and about 49% of them are able to buy their first houses after 5years.The factors of age,educational level,parents’ educational level,and household lifecycle stage have positive significant impact on their first homeownership behavior.The faster the housing price growth and land supply and the greater the proportion of first house’s loan interest rate concessions,the higher the probability of getting first-time homeownership is.The transitional business tax policies have negative impact.Hence,the government should continue to implement differentiated credit loan policies,ensure housing land supply,stabilize the public psychological expectation level of the housing price and promote gradient concept of housing consumption.更多还原