【摘要】 为了揭示河北省1978-2013年粮食产量变动的时序特征及其贡献因素,基于改进的拉氏因素分解方法,建立粮食产量变动的因素分解模型,定量分析了各因素对粮食产量变动的影响方向和份额。结果表明:(1)研究期河北省粮食产量总体呈上升趋势,但在1998-2003年间出现了明显的生产滑坡;(2)从1978-2013年各分解因素的效应看,粮食结构、作物单产、复种指数的变化对粮食增产起促进作用,作用强度由大到小,而耕地面积效应和粮作比例效应则起负面作用;(3)在研究期粮食产量变化的3个不同阶段其主导因素不同。最后,对粮食产量变化因素分解模型的意义、河北省粮食增产重点进行了初步讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to reveal the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of grain yield and its determinants in Hebei Province during 1978-2013, factor decomposition model for grain yield change was created based on RLI method, the influence of various factors on the changes of grain yield were analyzed quantitatively. Analysis results were as follows:(1) The grain yield of Hebei province showed a rising trend, but there was a significant production decline from 1998 to 2003;(2) From the view of effect of factor decomposition in 1978-2013, the effect of grain structure, the grain yield per hectare, multiple cropping index were positive and their effect strength descending, but the effect of arable land and grain farming index was negative;(3) The dominant factors were different at three stages of grain yield change. In the end, there was a discuss aiming to the significance of factors decomposition model and the focus of Grain increase yield in Hebei province.更多还原