【摘要】 利用广州市1980~2013年的逐年的灰霾日数、低容量日数、人均GDP、第二产业占比等资料,通过单位根检验、协整分析等确保数据稳定基础上,进行格兰杰因果关系检验,并建立向量自回归(VAR)模型开展脉冲响应分析。结果表明:(1)第二产业比重和灰霾之间存在着单向因果关系,第二产业比重的波动显著影响灰霾日数的变化;(2)代表大气污染扩散条件的广州低容量日数的波动不是灰霾序列波动的格兰杰原因;(3)第二产业比重比人均GDP对灰霾影响更强。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper studies the relationship between the changes of industrial structure and haze in Guangzhou. Several core variables are considered in the study, including annual observed haze days, climate low capacity days, GDP per capita and proportion of secondary industry. Using the vector auto-regression(VAR) model, the paper investigates the time series data ranging from 1980 to 2013 through impulse response functions(IRF) and Granger casualty test. The results are given as follows:(1) There exists one-way causal relationship between the proportion of secondary industry and haze, implying that the changes of the proportion of secondary industry leads to the variation of haze;(2) The Granger causality test shows that, haze days are influenced by climate low capacity days significantly;(3) Proportion of secondary industry has a stronger influence on haze days than GDP per capita.更多还原