【摘要】 木材物流流量分布预测可为木材物流运输计划的制定提供依据,促进木材物流朝着科学化的方向发展。采用灰色-重力模型对木材物流流量分布进行预测研究,分析灰色-重力模型方法的预测模型与预测步骤,应用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测各个物流小区的发生量与吸引量,在此基础上,采用双约束重力模型对物流小区间的流量分布情况进行预测。以福建泰宁县的若干木材加工企业的物流活动为研究对象,通过实例验证表明预测精度较高,预测结果能够辅助木材物流决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The forecast of timber logistics distribution can provide basis for the establishment of timber logistics plan and promote the timber logistics towards scientific development. The grey- gravity model for wood were used to forecast the timber logistics distribution. This paper analyzed the forecasting model and forecasting steps. It first forecasted the sending and attracting timber with GM( 1,1) model,and then the logistics flow distribution was forecasted by using the double restraint gravitational model. At last,choosing the main timber processing enterprise logistics activities in Taining of Fujian as the research object,the example showed that the forecasting accuracy was higher and the forecasting results can assist the timber logistics decision.更多还原