【摘要】 依据天山地区40个气象站点的实测气温资料和同期的全球气候指数,运用线性倾向估计和相关分析等方法,分析近63年来天山地区气温变化特征及其对全球气候变化的响应。初步得到以下结论:天山地区平均升温幅度为0.306℃/10a;南亚季风季风指数(SASMI)是影响天山地区气温变化的主要气候指数,春季SASMI与四季的气温均呈现正相关;夏季SASMI与春季气温呈现负相关,而与夏季气温呈现正、负两种相关;冬季SASMI与夏、秋、冬季气温均呈现正相关,说明春、冬SASMI对四季的升温均有一定影响。太平洋10年涛动(PDO)是影响天山气温变化的另一较为主要气候指数,夏季PDO与夏季气温呈现负相关,与冬季气温呈现正相关;秋季PDO与夏秋季气温均呈现负相关。夏季北大西洋涛动NAO与春季气温呈现负相关,与夏季气温呈现正负两种相关;夏冬季太平洋北美涛动(PNAO)与冬季气温呈现正相关,秋季印度洋偶极子(IOD)与春季气温呈现正相关。此外,上述气候指数对气温变化的影响,在空间上存在一定的差异性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Air temperature variation in Tianshan region and its responses to global climate change are being widely concerned in recent years. In this paper,we used linear tendency estimate and Pearson Correlation Coefficient method to analyze the characteristics of temperature changes in Tianshan Mountain,and to investigate the responses of air temperature variation to global climate change. The data information consists of measured air temperature datasets of 40 meteorological stations over the past 60 years in Tianshan region and global climate indices over the same period. Conclusions of the study are as follows: The average increasing rate of temperature in Tianshan region is 0. 306 C /10 a,which shows a temporal difference. Firstly,SASMI( South Asian Summer Monsoon Index) is the climate index of the last importance that affects the air temperature in Tianshan Mountain. Spring SASMI has a positive correlation to the temperature of the four seasons,and summer SASMI negatively related to the spring temperature shows the positive and negative correlation to summer temperature,and SASMI in winter is characterized by positive correlation relation with the air temperature in summer,autumn and winter,indicating that SASMI in summer and winter plays a certain role in promoting the four seasons’ temperature. Secondly,PDO( Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is the main climatic index that has an effect on Tianshan area temperature changes,and summer PDO expresses a negative relationship with the temperature in summer,while positively correlated to the temperature in winter,and autumn PDO exhibits the negative correlation to the temperature both in summer and autumn. Thirdly,summer NAO( North Atlantic Oscillation) displays a negative correlation to the temperature in spring and reflects positive and negative correlation relationship with the temperature in summer. Fourthly,the PNA( Pacific North American Oscillation) both in summer and winter are positively related to the winter temperature. And then the autumn IOD( Indian Ocean Dipole) represents a positive correlation to the spring air temperature. In addition,the impacts of all of these climatic indices above on temperature changes have a spatial difference. Having a objectively understanding of the features of modern climatic change in Tianshan Mountain is feasible based on our results. This study provides a scientific basis for further carrying out the impacts of global climate change on the climate of Tianshan Mountain and offers a meaningful reference to developing strategies dealing with climatic variation.更多还原