【摘要】 基于系统动力学模型理论,构建海口市经济社会-生态环境-水资源复合需水预测模型,在经济社会稳定或高速发展、节水措施强化或适度推广的交叉组合情景假设下,给出在来水频率P=50%、75%、90%时,海口市各区域用户发展需水量的高、低两种预测结果,并对结果进行合理性分析。结果表明,所得需水预测结果较为可靠,可为海口市水资源管理和水资源配置提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper built hybrid water demand forecast model with combination of social economy,ecological environment and water resources based on system dynamics theory.Under the assumption of high or stable speed development of social economy and strengthening or promotion water-saving strategies,the predicted results of high and low water demand for regional user in Haikou City were obtained at the given inflow frequency(P=50%,75%,90%).The rationality of the prediction results was analyzed.The results show that the prediction of water demand is reliable,which provides reference for management and allocation of water resources in Haikou city.更多还原