【摘要】 人口老龄化的浪潮席卷了全球。传统的生命周期理论认为,老龄化的人口结构会导致生育率下降,从而进一步加重老龄化进程。这个观点的不足在于没有考虑退休老人抚养孙辈的行为。通过一个一般均衡的代际交叠模型,在隔代抚养机制下考察老龄化对于经济的影响。考察发现,老龄化会使老人承担更多抚养小孩的责任,这能够解放年轻人的劳动时间,提高生育率,不仅可以避免老龄化的螺旋式加深,也不至于拖累经济增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 The aging of the population is sweeping the earth. In traditional life cycle theory,population ageing will lead to the decline of birth rate,thus further deepen the aging process itself.The flaw of this opinion is it does not consider the behavior of the retired. This paper puts forward different views on this issue. When considering the grandparenting behavior,aging will enhance fertility motivation. We build a general equilibrium overlapping generation model,then select the mortality and life expectancy as a measure of the level of aging,and investigate their changes on macro- economy. We found that aging will make the olds to take more responsibility in family support,which will increase parents’ labor supply and improve fertility. In that way,population ageing will not be deepened,it will not put a burden on economy.更多还原