【摘要】 目的探讨广州地区登革病毒Ⅳ型(DENV-4)流行过程的空间模式及驱动因素,为针对性防控提供科学依据。方法以现住址为地理编码,以发病时间为时间编码,对2010年和2012年广州市DENV-4街镇发病率采用Moran’s I指数定量表达全局自相关、以Moran散点图和LISA指数定量和可视化表达局部聚集性,之后以经度、纬度和人口密度为自变量开展空间滞后回归分析。结果共发现147例DENV-4病例,其中2010年46例,2012年101例。2010年首例病例发病日期8月31日(泰国输入病例),末例11月1日,疫情持续62 d。2012年首例病例发病日期7月12日,末例11月24日,疫情持续135 d。2010年和2012年登革热发病均具有全局空间自相关性,2010年Moran’s I统计指数为0.1249(Z=3.5656,P<0.0005),2012年为0.4455(Z=9.9346,P<0.0001),2012年DENV-4发病聚集性高于2010年,越秀区光塔街、六榕街、东风街和广卫街在2010年和2012年2年均出现DENV-4高高聚集。空间滞后回归分析表明,空间自相关性、人口密度则与DENV-4发病率正相关。结论广州地区DENV-4的空间模式具有明显的空间聚集性,主要集中于市中心区域,其发病率和人口密度、空间自相关性均呈现正相关关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the spatial pattern of DENV-4 transmission and its driving factors, and provide scientific support for dengue prevention and control. Methods By regarding patients′ current address as geocoding and dengue onset time as temporal coding, Moran′ s I index was applied to quantify global autocorrelation, Moran scatter graph and LISA index were applied to quantify and visualize local clustering utilizing the communities morbidity of Guangzhou in 2010 and 2012. Following the longitude, dimension and population density as independent variable, the spatial lag regression analysis was applied to measure the relationship with morbidity rate. Results 147 DENV-4 cases were detected totally, including 46 in 2010 and 101 in 2012. The onset date of first case which was imported from Thailand and last case were on August 31 and November 1 in 2010, respectively, with the duration time of 62 days.The onset date of first case and last case were on July 12 and November 24 in 2012, respectively, with the duration time of epidemic of 135 days. The incidence of DENV-4 both presented global spatial autocorrelation in the two years.The Moran′ I index were 0.1249(Z =3.5656,P <0.0005)and 0.4455(Z =9.9346,P <0.0001)in 2010 and 2012,respectively. The incidence rate clustering of DENV-4 in 2012 was higher than that in 2010. The Guangta, Liurong,Dongfeng, and Guangwei of Yuexiu District appeared high incidence clustering both in 2010 and 2012. The spatial lag regression analysis indicated spatial autocorrelation and population density both presented positive correlation with DENV-4 morbidity. Conclusion The spatial pattern of DENV-4 transmission presented apparent spatial clustering in Guangzhou, which was mainly focused on the city center. DENV-4 morbidity presented positive correlation with population density and spatial autocorrelation.更多还原