【摘要】 根据收益—成本权衡理论,构建了农户减灾收益与成本理论分析框架,基于北京市郊区农户的调查数据,采用Logistic模型分析农户对森林灾害减灾需求的主要影响因素。结果表明,北京市郊区72.11%的农户有减灾需求,尤其对村集体帮助、政府救济和森林保险等减灾措施的需求较大,火灾、风灾和病虫害是影响农户生产生活的最主要灾害类型。农户对减灾措施的认知程度、风险偏好、林业收入占总收入比、三年内受灾严重程度和对政府防灾救灾体系的满意程度对减灾需求影响显著;而农户家庭年均纯收入、林业生产人数、对减灾措施了解程度、林地规模、林地质量、林地位置、树种及3年内受灾次数对减灾需求影响不显著。因此,政府通过提高农户对减灾措施的认知水平,并根据农户需求制定有针对性的减灾措施,建立健全林业防灾救灾体系是实现对林业防灾减灾措施有效供给的重要途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on a survey data of farmers in Beijing suburb area and applying the benefit/cost analysis method, this paper built a theoretical benefit/cost framework to analyze farmers’ demand for disaster reduction measures and also examined the influencing factors of farmers’ demand for disaster reduction measures by a Logistic model. Results show that 72.11% of farmers demanded disaster reduction measures, especially for village’s public help, government relief and forest insurance. Main disasters farmers are afraid of include fire, wind and pests. The influencing factors which affect farmers’ demand include the awareness of the importance of disaster reduction measures, the attitude towards risks, the ratio of forestry income to their total income, the severity of disasters within past three years, and the satisfaction of public disaster prevention and relief system. While other factors, including the household average annual net income, the number of people involved in forestry production, the awareness of disaster reduction measures, forest scale, forest quality, forest location, tree species, and the number of natural disasters in the past three years, do not have significant impacts. Therefore, to achieve the effective supply of disaster prevention and relief measures of forestry, the Government should raise the cognition level of farmers to disaster reduction measures and design a forestry disaster relief system based on the actual needs of farmers.更多还原